CCMC CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-09-22T21:36:00-CME-001)

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Sep 24 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.3 flare at 23/1456
UTC from newly numbered Region 3836 (S12E66, Dsi/beta-gamma-delta).
Slight growth was observed in Region 3835 (S25E42, Dso/beta). The rest
of the spotted regions were either stable or in slight decay. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available satellite imagery.

The CME off the SE limb at 22/2136 UTC, associated with an M 3.7 flare
at 22/2139 UTC, was reanalyzed. Model results indicated a potential
glancing blow around early to midday on 25 Sep.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field reached active levels, likely due to CME
influence.

.Forecast...
Unsettled to active levels are expected to continue in 24 Sep as CME
activity persists. By early to midday on 25 Sep, a combination of a
glancing blow from the 22 Sep CME and HSS effects will likely cause
active to G1 (Minor) storming. Unsettled to active levels will likely
persist into 26 Sep.


~~~~~

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Sep 23 1230 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels when new Region 3835 (S25E56,
Dso/beta) produced an M3.7/2n flare at 22/2139 UTC; the largest event of
the period. Associated with this flare was a 540 sfu Tenflare. This
region continues to develop as it rotates onto the disk. The largest
region on the disk, Region 3828 (S12W13, Cai/beta-gamma) was quiet and
stable. The remaining regions were either stable or in gradual decay,
and generally quiescent throughout the period. A CME off the SE limb was
associated with the M3.7 flare. Analysis and modelling of the CME
suggests no Earth-directed component.

~~~~~

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Sep 23 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached moderate levels when new Region 3835 (S22E63,
Dao/beta) produced an M3.7/2n flare at 22/2139 UTC; the largest event of
the period. The remaining regions were either stable or in gradual
decay, and generally quiescent throughout the period. A CME associated
with the M3.7 flare is being analyzed for a possible Earth-directed
component.

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